Is the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season off to a slow start?

- As of this writing a tropical disturbance continues swirling over the southeastern United States and despite the days of drenching rain over Florida this system will not evolve into a tropical cyclone and will not be named.

There have been 5 named storms this season, one of which was a very rare January storm. It may seem like a slow season to date, but based on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook we are seeing 30% to 50% of what was expected this year. The peak of tropical season in the Atlantic is still ahead of us in late-August, September and October.

Through August 6,, 2016 there have been 2 Hurricanes and 3 Tropical Storms:

Hurricane Alex – January 13-15, 2016
Tropical Storm Bonnie – May 27-June 5, 2016
Tropical Storm Colin – June 5-7, 2016
Tropical Storm Danielle – June 19-21
Hurricane Earl – August 2-6, 2016

Notably there were no named storms in July this year and there have been no major hurricanes…yet.
The El Nino weather pattern that contributed to our mild winter in Chicago usually favors quieter conditions in the Atlantic basin and higher activity in the north Pacific.

That has been the case this year with twice as many named Pacific storms. However, El Nino is fading and a La Nina pattern may be emerging this autumn leading to a gradual increase in Atlantic activity. The average end of the Atlantic season is December 1st leaving plenty of time to use a few more of the 2016 names below.

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