March Madness: Why Illinois basketball can – and can’t – make the Final Four

Illinois basketball is playing in its sixth-straight NCAA Tournament under Brad Underwood.

This is the second time in three seasons the Illini have been a No. 3 seed in the Big Dance, too. Illinois earned the same seed in 2024 when Underwood advanced to the Elite Eight.

But, Illinois needed an extra push after falling to Wisconsin in its Big Ten Tournament opener. After that, the Illini called a team meeting unbeknownst to Underwood.

"It was more about being on the same page with our mentality," Boswell told reporters on Selection Sunday. "Any frustrations we had, any thoughts we had about anything throughout the year or things we want to express, just lay it all out and make sure we’re all on the same page. Have our main focus on one goal, and that’s try to get to the national championship."

The Illini are aware they have the tools to make it to the Final Four for just the sixth time in program history. They just need to put it all together.

Here are reasons why Illinois basketball can – and can’t – make the Final Four in Indianapolis.

Why the Illini can’t make the Final Four

Watch the Wisconsin game, and you can see the elephant in the room.

Illinois led the Badgers by 15 twice on two separate occasions in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin still forced the game into overtime and won. It’s because Illinois had too many mental breakdowns that led to defensive breakdowns.

The Illini boast two 7-footers, plus forwards Ben Humrichous and David Mirkovic. Illinois should not lose the rebounding battle often, if at all. Illinois lost the rebounding battle to Wisconsin in this instance.

The Illinois offense is one of the best in the nation, but the defense has struggled to have an edge in the late stretch of the season.

If Illinois can’t find that defensive edge and stay sharp mentally, Underwood’s team will struggle to close out games in the NCAA Tournament. That might work against Penn. That can’t work against other teams in Illinois’ region, including Houston, Florida, Nebraska and Vanderbilt. 

It’s the one thing holding the Illini back in March. It's so pressing, it could hold them back from a win in the NCAA Tournament if they can't figure it out.

Why Illinois basketball can make the Final Four

There was a stretch during the season where Illinois was one of the five best teams in America.

Keaton Wagler established himself as one of the best players in the country, let alone one of the best freshmen, while Mirkovic is one of the most versatile players the Illini have. The Ivisic brothers, Andrej Stojakovic, Jake Davis, Boswell and Humrichous add the proper experience.

On paper, the Illini have everything they need to make a deep tournament run. If most of that run relies on the offense, that’s fine. Stojakovic and Wagler can lead the charge there. Davis, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic and Boswell are capable enough shooters that force defenses to respect them.

All that to say, the defense is key.

The flip side to "why Illinois can’t make the Final Four" is also a reason the Illini can make it to the Final Four. If Underwood can get his team to figure out the defensive side of the ball and find a way to put teams away, they have as good of a chance as any team to make it to Indianapolis.

Back in January, Illinois won 12 games in a row, winning on the road at No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Nebraska and No. 19 Iowa. All of this happened with Boswell out.

Illinois held all but two of its opponents in that 12-game winning streak to under 70 points score. With an offense as good as the one Illinois has now, that’s all the defense needs to do.

Because of that, a deep tournament is very likely.