Trump's Golden Dome would cost over $1 trillion, CBO projects

A proposed high-tech missile defense system designed to protect the United States from attack would likely cost well over one trillion dollars, according to a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate. 

The non-partisan agency’s projection is hundreds of billions of dollars higher than one provided by President Donald Trump when speaking about the project last year, as well as the approximately $24 billion approved by Congress so far. 

Big picture view:

The CBO estimated the project, dubbed the Golden Dome for America, would cost the United States nearly $1.2 trillion to build and then maintain for the 20 years. 

In its report, the agency pointed out that the Defense Department has not provided details about what systems would be deployed or how many of them there would be, what the CBO described as the "objective architecture." Without that information, it determined the cost of a theoretical national missile defense system based on the requirements included in the executive order that created the project.

By the numbers:

The final number given by the CBO is more than a trillion dollars higher than the $175 billion estimate Trump gave last May, although it is not clear if the president’s figure included the cost to maintain it going forward and for how long. Even if Trump was only predicting the cost of setting up the system and not including the cost of running it, his estimate still falls well short of the CBO’s prediction. 

Its researchers determined creating a network that included a space layer, two surface layers, and a regional layer would cost just over a trillion dollars. For example, the CBO’s report indicated that the U.S. would need a constellation of 7,800 satellites to ensure that the whole country, including Alaska and Hawaii, was protected.

Eliminating the space layer would cut the expected price below a half-trillion dollars, to $448 billion, the report pointed out. But, removing that layer would mean the project does not meet the stated requirements.

The backstory:

The proposed "Golden Dome" was inspired, at least in part, by Israel’s "Iron Dome," the country’s multi-tiered defense system that most recently has played an important role defending the nation from attacks by Iran and its proxy militant groups. Trump signed the executive order launching the U.S. counterpart during his first week back in office.

Dig deeper:

The CBO explained that the type of system envisioned in its estimates, in addition to providing a multilayered approach, would be designed to fully engage a full-scale attack by a regional adversary such as North Korea or a small–scale attack by a larger potential opponent like Russia or China. The report stated that the system could not be guaranteed to defeat the attacks because no system always works perfectly, and it would likely be overwhelmed by a full-scale attack by a larger country.

It did note many variables that could affect costs, including ones associated with but not directly tied to the defense system as well as timelines and how they may affect the price of goods, production abilities, and infrastructure. The report also noted that Defense Department projects often see costs rise faster than inflation.