AP-IL--ILX-IL Central Area Forecast Discussion, IL
000
FXUS63 KILX 151138
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
638 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL COMPLIMENTS OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
DRIFTS EAST INTO LOWER MI BY 00Z/7 PM AND RIDGES INTO IL. COOLER
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER THE AREA WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. MORE
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TODAY AND LOWEST
FROM I-74 NE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
592 DM 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL RIDGE INTO IL THIS
EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1018 MB OVER NORTHERN WI
AND UPPER MI SHIFTS EAST INTO SE ONTARIO BY DAWN THU. THIS WILL
ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THROUGH
TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH SHORT
WAVE EJECTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO WI/NORTHERN IL THU. THIS TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTROMS TO FAR WESTERN IL AREAS FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE
WEST LATE TONIGHT. THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS
EAST INTO IL RIVER VALLEY THU. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS (5% RISK) THU OVER AREAS MAINLY WEST OF IL RIVER.
INCREASING SSE WINDS THU TO START TO BRING A BIT WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR BACK INTO CENTRAL IL. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
WARMEST READINGS SW CWA AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BY THU AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 THU NIGHT AND NE OF I-74 FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THOUGH SE IL LIKELY TO STAY DRY DURING
THIS TIME.
00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEAT WAVE RETURNING TO
IL FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY (HIGHS IN
LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S) RETURNS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F ON FRIDAY AND 100-108F THIS WEEKEND WHEN HEAT
ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND SHORT WAVES RIDGING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL GIVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM I-74 NORTH. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SE INTO IL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL TAF
SITES. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AROUND 4 KFT AGL. CLOUD COVER WILL BE RELATED TO SURFACE
HEATING...SO WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS E-NNE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:38AM EDT