AP-IL--STL-IL SO Central Area Forecast Discussion, IL
000
FXUS63 KLSX 151140
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH DRIER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO REGION ON EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SO MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BYRD
.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
BY TONIGHT, FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH
FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. WILL SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN MO, SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
REGION. PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
EVEN THOUGH WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA BY 00Z FRIDAY,
MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MO/IA
BORDER, SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE DRY OUT AND WARM UP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF WARMER AIR AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE, AND MAYBE EVEN HIGHER BY SUNDAY. SO
HEAT HEADLINES COULD BE BACK IN THE PICTURE BY THE WEEKEND.
BEYOND THAT, EXTENDED MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH ECMWF
BEING THE FASTEST WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY, SO WENT WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND KEPT LOW POPS IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, THEN INCREASE THEM FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS REGION,
STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF REGION BY TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, SO FOR NOW
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 80S
ON TUESDAY.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. A RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRIMARILY NORTHERN
MO INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GREAT ENOUGH TO ADD A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KUIN FOR 09-12Z.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUTS
OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:40AM EDT