AP-IN--ILN-IN SE Area Forecast Discussion, IN
000
FXUS61 KILN 151534
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1134 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY INTO THURSDAY
KEEPING THE WEATHER BENIGN. BY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KILN 12Z SOUNDING AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS TO LIFT AND MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SCATTERED...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 13 TO 14
DEGREES C. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. PWATS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL TO BELOW 0.50" IN SOME AREAS AS THE
BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AXIS LAYS JUST EAST
OF ILN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PULL EAST THURSDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO START THEIR CLIMB. 850 TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
CLIMB TO AROUND 16 TO 17 DEGREES C SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL OVER THE AREA WITH
PWATS STARTING TO RISE AS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEAK FRIDAY BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CAPE 7/8 2500 J/KG). BULK SHEAR ALSO REMAINS
WEAK WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SFC - 6 KM OF ONLY AROUND
25 KTS. GIVEN THE ABOVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. EVEN TOWARDS
THE SOUTH THOUGH CANT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES AS DAY TIME HEATING
WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WARMER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
LONG TERM ARE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR STRATUS DECK IS CONTINUING TO ROTATE
DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO LIFT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 11:34AM EDT