The best and worst-case scenarios in 2026 for Notre Dame, Illinois, NIU and Northwestern

College football returns this weekend, and the local teams could cover each end of the spectrum.

Notre Dame could be a national championship contender. Northwestern and Illinois could be chasing high-end bowl berths if everything goes right. NIU could enter the Mountain West successfully in Year 1. That's just the best-case scenario for each team, though.

Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Notre Dame, Illinois, NIU and Northwestern in 2026.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Worst-Case Scenario: Missing the 2026 College Football Playoff

Best-Case Scenario: 2026 National Champions

This sounds like it’s zero to 100 miles per hour. But, that’s where the Irish are.

Notre Dame missed out on the 2025 College Football Playoff by maybe one or two plays. That sting has resonated through South Bend and sat with an entire football program for the whole offseason.

What resulted was an offseason where the Irish juiced up their defensive trenches, added more offensive firepower and placed trust in their starting quarterback.

This could end with Notre Dame missing the CFP just like it did in 2025. They have two games where they need to take care of business: vs. Miami and vs. BYU. Fail in those two areas, and Notre Dame is watching from its couch yet again.

But, what if it all goes according to plan?

If it all pays off in the way Notre Dame fans hope it will, then Notre Dame is celebrating its first national title since the 1980s. There will be no more detractors. As the kids say, the haters will be silenced.

There will be no denying Marcus Freeman and his team in this instance. They will have brought Notre Dame back to the pinnacle of college football.

Imagine what a world that would be? It’s possible for Notre Dame this year.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Worst-Case Scenario: A low-end Big Ten bowl berth

Best-Case Scenario: 2026 College Football Playoff team

The Illini have found momentum.

Bret Bielema has coached Illinois to three bowl games in a row, beating SEC teams in his last two bowl games, to boot. That has to feel good for the guy who once coached in that league.

This year, Illinois has a friendly schedule that should align them with a chance to win 10 games. 

Of course, there are always potential pitfalls. Games vs. Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and UCLA stand out as teams that could trip up the Illini much like Minnesota did in 2024 during Bielema’s breakout year.

However, the experience that Illinois garnered in the transfer portal this offseason should help as should an upgrade at defensive coordinator in Bobby Hauck.

If all goes well for Illinois, they could vie for a CFP berth as a top-half team in the Big Ten.

Northwestern Wildcats

Worst-Case Scenario: 4-8 season, or worse

Best-Case Scenario: High-end Big Ten bowl tie-in

Northwestern has been adamant it wants to contend for Big Ten Championships, College Football Playoff berths and national championships. If Indiana can do it, then why not Northwestern?

Aside from a few reasons, the biggest being the financial backing the Hoosiers have, NU has to establish itself as a winning program. That starts with winning in 2026.

The Wildcats have the games on their schedule to prove it. It isn’t a stretch to say tilts vs. South Dakota State, Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers, Ball State, Colorado and Michigan State are all games Northwestern should win this year.

Assume NU wins those games, then the Cats’ eclipse their 2025 season win total. After that, David Braun’s team can prove it’s a winning program by winning one or more games against Illinois, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State.

Is it easy? Absolutely not. It could just as easily be the other way around. But, opportunity is there for the Wildcats if they take care of business.

Northern Illinois Huskies

Worst-Case Scenario: Winless in the Mountain West

Best-Case Scenario: A bowl game, Rob Harley shedding interim status

Northern Illinois sits with a chance to enjoy both ends of the spectrum, and it doesn’t feel like there’s any in between. That tracks, though. NIU's program has lived on extremes, for example: an undefeated 2012 season ending with a blowout Orange Bowl loss, going winless in 2020 before winning the MAC in 2021 or beating No. 5 Notre Dame on the road before immediately losing to Buffalo the very next week.

Rob Harley takes over NIU after Thomas Hammock left for the Seattle Seahawks. He’s now leading NIU as the program enters the new-look Mountain West. It’s a massive undertaking.

It could easily turn into the Huskies struggling in their new conference. They have a tough non-conference schedule against Power 4 Iowa and Arizona. That’s before NIU takes on UNLV and Hawaii, two Mountain West teams with nine wins or more in 2025, and North Dakota State, the perennial FCS championship contender that’s now in the Mountain West.

It’s no easy task. It could very well end with NIU struggling to find its footing.

Or, Harley could emerge as one of the best stories in college football with success in his first season that ends with NIU removing his "interim" head coach status. It’s possible because they recruited quarterback Taron Dickens, who was a playmaker at Western Carolina.

Making a bowl game would be a massive success for NIU in this transitional year.

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