AP-WI--DLH-WI NW Area Forecast Discussion, WI
000
FXUS63 KDLH 151201
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND A PAIR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT LOW LEVELS TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THUS WARM AIR ADVECTION. AT
UPPER LEVELS A 60-80KT 250MB JET IS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THIS JET STREAK COMBINED
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFT OVER THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THIS LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. WHILE 00Z INL SOUNDING DEPICTING A VERY DRY LAYER AT
850MB...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BECOMING ORGANIZED UPSTREAM.
FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TWO SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE
CWA LOOK TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT STILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH SPECIFIC TRACKS. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM IS A RATHER
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THAT GRADUALLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER THEN EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS A MORE ORGANIZED COLORADO LOW
THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE LOW MOVING FROM WESTERN KANSAS NORTH
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL BOTH AFFECT THE CWA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE GROUND /BASICALLY
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...AND INTO
THE ARROWHEAD REGION/ FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
CHANGES IN TRACKS. PWAT VALUES AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARKS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE
LAKE...APPROACHING 80 FARTHER INLAND WHERE HIGHS REACHED NEAR 80
YESTERDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES...WITH
POTENTIALLY UP TO 20 KT GUSTS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS...LIMITED TO NEAR 70 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...WITH A COUPLE MAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A COUPLE WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
ONE THAT WILL GENERALLY MOVE INTO OUR NW WI COUNTIES...AND ONE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH IN A NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
OUR CWA ON FRIDAY. WILL CARRY A SMALL POP FOR MOST AREAS BUT NO REAL
FORCING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MONTANA THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS AND IT SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS COULD
REACH CLOSE TO 90. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK SHOULD FEATURE LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY WARM ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80S.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA SIDE. CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 59 73 58 / 20 40 40 30
INL 79 62 76 59 / 40 50 70 70
BRD 82 64 75 59 / 40 40 40 20
HYR 76 61 69 58 / 10 30 60 40
ASX 75 59 73 57 / 10 30 40 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 8:01AM EDT