Open Illinois seats in 2026 election offer opportunities for new, fresh faces

CHICAGO - When voters in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs go to the polls for next year’s midterm elections, they could help determine which direction the Democratic Party goes after disappointing losses in 2024.

The opportunity comes with an unusually high number of open congressional seats that could lead to several new faces heading to Washington, D.C. in January of 2027 from the Chicago area.

For the first time since 2010, a U.S. Senate seat in Illinois is wide open for the taking. In addition, two sitting House members are running for that Senate job and three others are set to retire, leaving their seats open as well.

All the open House seats are located in the Chicago area, so while there’s little doubt that Democrats will win, the March primary elections could serve as something of an important bellwether for what Democratic voters want in their representatives.

RELATED: Illinois 2026 elections: Everything you need to know

There’s an ongoing debate among political pundits these days about how Democrats can win back voters who have rejected them in recent elections. Should they double down on a more progressive and populist message? Or should they tack more to the center to counter attacks of being out of touch with many voters, especially on social issues?

In just a few short months, Democratic primary voters in Illinois could give us a better idea of how the party more broadly might answer that question.

Primer on Congress

Big picture view:

First, it might be worth going through the basics of how Congress is set up.

Perhaps the most high-profile race will be to fill Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat, which he will have held for 30 years when he retires at the end of the current term.

U.S. senators are elected to six-year terms. Each state gets only two seats, so the Senate is made up of 100 members.

Senators’ terms are also staggered, so Sen. Tammy Duckworth, Illinois’ other senator, won’t be up for re-election until 2028. She was last re-elected in 2022.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, which includes two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.

In the other chamber, U.S. House members are only elected to two-year terms, and the number of members each state gets depends on its population.

Illinois has 17 members in the House. Each member’s district has around 750,000 residents.

Republicans hold a narrow 219-214 majority in the House.

Democrats hope to win enough seats in the 2026 midterms to take control of the lower chamber, which could give them the power to block the GOP’s legislative priorities and investigate what they see as wrongdoing by the Trump administration.

‘A generational change’

Local perspective:

One notable trend affecting turnover in the 2026 races in Illinois and beyond is older members of Congress deciding to retire.

That’s especially the case in Illinois, as Durbin, who turned 81 this month, north suburban congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, 81, and Chicago West Side congressman Danny Davis, 84, all decided to forgo re-election and are set to retire at the end of this term.

"It’s partly a generational change," said Dick Simpson, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Chicago who also served as a Chicago alderman. "The people who are retiring are also older."

Traditionally, as members sometimes spend decades in Congress, they’re able to build political alliances and fundraising operations that make it very difficult for an outside and lesser-known challenger to defeat them in a primary or general election. Simpson called an open Senate seat like Durbin’s a "once-in-a-decade opportunity."

Durbin first won his seat in 1996 after earning the Democratic nomination over four other candidates. He never again had a serious primary challenge and would win each of his general election races in 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2020 with at least 53.5% of the vote.

Such experience has also been a benefit to Durbin, according to John Mark Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Hansen said Durbin has quietly risen through the ranks of the Senate Democratic leadership to majority whip when his party was in power, the second-highest position in the caucus.

Whoever the new senator from Illinois will be in 2027, they will start out at or near the bottom of the seniority list and will therefore be assigned to less prestigious committees. It will also take a while before they chair a committee like Durbin, who led the Judiciary Committee, which is in charge of confirming federal judges, including nominees to the Supreme Court.

There are 14 Democratic candidates and eight Republican candidates who have filed to run for Durbin’s Senate seat. U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly are all seen as the top contenders to win the Democratic nomination in March and then the general election in November. 

The Democratic candidate is widely expected to win the general election. The last Republican to win a U.S. Senate seat in Illinois was Mark Kirk in 2010.

Open seats, big competition

By the numbers:

With Krishnamoorthi and Kelly running for Senate, and the other House retirees, that also leaves four open seats in the lower chambers.

It should be noted that U.S. Rep. Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, 69, is also not seeking re-election to his seat representing much of Chicago’s Southwest Side, but he’s received criticism for a late exit from the race. That led to no one else but his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, filing to run in the Democratic primary. Barring a challenge from an independent candidate, Patty Garcia, no relation, is in a prime position to be elected to Congress. The bottom line is that race really can’t be considered truly open and competitive as of this writing.

Much like with the Senate race, the open House seats have attracted large fields of candidates, especially on the Democratic side.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the number of candidates who have filed to run in each open House race in Illinois:

• 2nd District (Kelly seat): 10 Democrats, 2 Republicans
• 7th District (Davis seat): 13 Democrats, 2 Republicans
• 8th District (Krishnamoorthi seat): 8 Democrats, 4 Republicans
• 9th District (Schakowsky seat): 17 Democrats, 4 Republicans

You’ll notice the Democratic fields are much larger, because these seats are largely seen as Democratic strongholds. So whoever wins that party’s nomination will likely cruise to victory barring unforeseen circumstances.

"None of these seats are going to change party," Simpson said.

To illustrate the point, here’s how much each of the sitting Democratic representatives won their general election contest by in the 2024 race, which was largely a better year for Republicans:

• Kelly earned 67.5% of the vote (a 35.1-point margin of victory)
• Davis earned 83.3% of the vote (a 66.6-point margin of victory)
• Krishnamoorthi earned 57.1% of the vote (a 14.2-point margin of victory)
• Schakowsky earned 68.4% of the vote (a 36.8-point margin of victory)

Especially since the 2025 elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats are seeing more momentum and signs pointing to re-taking at least the House next year. A Marquette Law School national poll this month found that Democrats have a 49-44% advantage over Republicans in terms of preference among registered voters. Among those who say they are certain to vote, the advantage grows to 53-44%.

Still, it should be noted that most people surveyed had negative views of both parties.

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