Can the Chicago Bears clinch a playoff berth? Bears clinching scenarios for Week 16
Bears reach 10 wins for first time since 2018 | Chicago Sports Tonight
The Bears reached their 10th win for the first time since 2018 against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday at Soldier Field. The team is gearing up for the Packers on Saturday at Soldier -- can they keep the momentum going?
One year ago, this would have seemed like a fever dream. The Chicago Bears in the playoffs?
It's not a dream. It's reality, and the Bears can finalize their spot in the NFL playoffs this weekend in a critical game against the Green Bay Packers.
"It's always good to know what's at stake, but in the same breath you have to keep the main thing, the main thing and that's the next game," Bears defensive lineman Grady Jarrett said. "That's controlling what you can and that's us going out there Saturday, putting our best foot forward, trying to get number 11 and the chips are going to fall where they may. But the good thing about it is as long as we control it, we can. That's our preparation this week. The effort we go out there and play with, that'll determine the outcome of the game and that's controlling what we can. The chips will fall where they may."
There are currently two scenarios where the Bears can clinch a playoff spot this weekend.
Chicago Bears (10-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
When: Saturday, 7:20 p.m.
Where: FOX
Where things stand: According to The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator, the Bears have an 85 percent chance to earn a postseason berth with three games remaining.
Scenario 1: Bears win, and get help
The easiest way the Bears can ensure they get a chance to make the playoffs this weekend is by winning on Saturday. If they beat Green Bay, not only does that put the Bears on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth, but it puts them on the cusp of winning the NFC North.
The Bears can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win AND a loss or tie by the Detroit Lions.
If the Bears beat the Packers, they would need to win one of their final two games to clinch the NFC North division title.
The Lions host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the afternoon window. Right now, only one NFC team has clinched a playoff spot. That was the Los Angeles Rams. The Vikings were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend.
By the numbers:
If the Bears win this weekend, their odds to make the playoffs jumps to 97 percent. Their odds of winning the division jumps to 83 percent with a win over the Packers, too.
Even if the Bears lose to the 49ers in Week 17, the Bears have a 95 percent chance to make the postseason. Beating Green Bay and losing to both San Francisco and Detroit drops the Bears' playoff odds to 89 percent.
Basically, this weekend turns into a win-and-most-likely-in scenario for the Bears.
Reacting to the Bears' 31-3 win over the Browns | After The Whistle
The Bears are 10-4 on the season after beating up the Browns 31-3. Tina Nguyen, Pat the Designer and Jim Miller share their thoughts after the Bears' win.
Scenario 2: Bears tie, and get help
If the Bears don't win on Saturday, they can still make the playoffs. But, they can't lose.
Yes, the second scenario where the Bears clinch the postseason is if they tie against the Packers. That's not completely unheard of. Green Bay tied the Dallas Cowboys on a field goal with no time remaining on Sept. 28.
This scenario requires help, too. The Lions need to lose on Sunday if the Bears want to clinch a playoff spot with a tie. As opposed to the first scenario where the Lions can lose OR tie in order to clinch a spot in the postseason.
By the numbers:
If the Bears do lose to Green Bay on Saturday, their chances to make the playoffs would fall to 70 percent. That's still better odds than most of the league. There's still a chance the Bears can miss the postseason entirely.
If the Bears lose to San Francisco, their chances fall to 60 percent. If they lose to Detroit to finish the season after that, their chances of making the fall to just 16 percent.
All of this leaves the Bears with a simple goal: Earn win No. 11 and it becomes likely they'll make the postseason. To put it in simpler terms, the Bears control their own destiny for the 2025 NFL Playoffs.