AP-WI--GRB-WI NE Area Forecast Discussion, WI
000
FXUS63 KGRB 151131
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
631 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGED OVER THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER NC WI. SCT WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MN ON THE WSTRN PERIPHERY OF THE
SFC HIGH...BUT WEAKENED AS IT PUSHED TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS IN WI.
AN MCS OVER KS/NEB WAS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A S/W TROF
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.
EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY TODAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. THE CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF TONIGHT DRY
TOO...BUT THE APPROACHING S/W TROF AND H8 WARM FRONT MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR SW COUNTIES LATE.
THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED S/W TROF...H8 WARM FRONT...A 35 TO 40 KT
LLJ AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN TIMING (GFS IS FASTEST) AND THE
POSITION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF (NAM FARTHEST NORTH). HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR NOW.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS...
BUT LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY DUE TO EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WAS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY SEEM REASONABLE FOR THIS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY AS SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATED QPF
IN THE STATE EVEN WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING. HAVE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES THEN TAPER OFF WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE THIS AT LEAST A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. EXPECT
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST LATE
TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:31AM EDT