A closer look at voter turnout last November — what it means for Chicago mayoral race

CHICAGO - We finally have all the voter turnout numbers from last November’s midterm election, and they contradict one of the media's big talking points about why Democrats did so well in Illinois.

When Democrats swept all the closely contested suburban congressional seats last fall, as well as other local races, one assumption was that women voters had turned out in big numbers in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion rights ruling.

"Now that we have access to the data, we're seeing that female turnout dropped off significantly. It dropped off 16% in Chicago. It dropped off 11% in Cook County. It dropped off massively. It wasn't female turnout that ruled the election, which is exactly the opposite of what all of us assumed," said Collin Corbett of Cor Strategies.

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In addition, Black and Hispanic voter turnout last fall was even lower than initially thought, potentially significant for next month's first-round of voting in the race for Chicago mayor.

"If that continues all the way through February and April, then that portends some problems for Chuy Garcia, for Lori Lightfoot. I mean they're really depending on those demographics, which are their base," Corbett said.