Krishnamoorthi leads Dem Senate poll, Bailey leads GOP governor field

CHICAGO - New polling found clear leaders in both the Democratic primary for the open U.S. Senate seat in Illinois and the Republican gubernatorial primary, although many voters were still undecided.

The latest polling from Emerson College and WGN-TV comes less than a month before early voting begins for the March 17 primary election.

Pollsters surveyed 568 respondents for the Democratic primary race and 432 respondents for the GOP gubernatorial race with a 3 percentage point margin of error, according to the poll’s methodology section. Respondents were reached via a combination of text messages and an online panel between Jan. 3 and Jan. 5.

Early voting in Illinois begins on Feb. 5.

U.S. Senate Democratic primary

By the numbers:

U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi held a solid lead among a large field of candidates, including two other major players for the race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release that Krishnamoorthi’s support came from voters over 50 (42%) and male voters (41%).

UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 3: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., particpates in the news conference "to call for an end to the presence of National Guard troops in D.C." outside the Capitol on Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via

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The congressman who represents much of Chicago’s northwest suburbs has also been outraising his top opponents, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly. His campaign said this month that they raised nearly $3.6 million in the last three months of 2025 and ended the year with more than $15 million in the bank.

Nearly half of the women polled (49%) were undecided on whom to support, while 26% backed Krishnamoorthi, 13% for Stratton, and 8% for Kelly.

Poll findings

Undecided: 46%
Raja Krishnamoorthi: 31%
Juliana Stratton: 10%
Robin Kelly: 8%
Kevin Ryan: 2%
Bryan Maxwell: 1%
Steve Botsford: 1%
Jonathan Dean: 1%
Other: 1%

The poll also found no clear frontrunner in the Republican Senate primary race with Don Tracy getting 6%, Jimmy Tillman earning 3%, Jeannie Evans with 3%, and the majority with 84% were undecided.

It should be noted that Durbin’s Senate seat is widely expected to remain in Democratic control, meaning whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely become Illinois’ next U.S. senator.

GOP gubernatorial primary

By the numbers:

The race for which Republican will take on Gov. JB Pritzker in the November general election also appears to have a clear leader, the same man who won the GOP nomination in 2022.

Downstate farmer and former state lawmaker Darren Bailey was the choice of 34% of respondents, with every other candidate earning single-digit marks.

Former state Sen. Darren Bailey greets people after announcing his Republican primary bid for Illinois governor, Sept. 25, 2025, at Turner's Table in Carterville, Illinois. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Still, 46% of respondents said they were undecided on whom to back.

Pritzker is still in prime position to win a third term, as he had a 51% approval rating in a recent poll, and Democrats are expected to have the advantage during this cycle with President Donald Trump’s approval ratings falling.

Poll findings