College Football Playoff: Is Notre Dame a CFP lock? Looking at different scenarios for the Irish

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We never truly know what the committee thinks, do we?

The second-to-last College Football Playoff rankings release happened Tuesday. We got a look into what the CFP committee thinks heading into the championship weekend.

Here’s what we learned from the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings that came out on Dec. 2.

It was Alabama vs. Notre Dame, not Miami

Plenty wanted to see Miami over Notre Dame. The idea is the Hurricanes should, in theory, jump Notre Dame because of Miami’s 27-24 win over the Irish in Week 1 at Miami.

The Irish still remain ahead of the Hurricanes, meaning Miami’s two conference losses to Louisville and SMU hold the ‘Canes back

Instead, Alabama jumped the Irish at No. 9, bumping Notre Dame to No. 10.

Right now, the Tide were good enough to jump the Irish. The committee said what Alabama did this week was good enough to catapult Alabama over Notre Dame this week in what was a fiercely debated topic, according to CFP chair Hunter Yurachek.

"The debate between Alabama and Notre Dame over the last three weeks has been one of the strongest debates," Yurachek said. "Alabama went on the road in a rivalry game, looked good, especially in the first half."

Alabama beat Auburn, a 5-7 team with an interim head coach, 27-20.

Sure, guys. This reasoning is up there with not honoring the head-to-head results.

This puts No. 11 BYU in between the Irish and the Hurricanes.

It inches Notre Dame closer to Miami, and only championship week remains before the bowl season begins. The Irish, which have not controlled their own destiny since losing to Texas A&M in Week 2m will be anxious in the next week about the different possibilities.

What happens next?

Yurachek was clear that idle teams aren’t safe. Miami could jump Notre Dame, even though both are idle during championship weekend.

"Idle teams can move based on the results of the championship games," Yurachek said. "There may be something that happens in a championship game that impacts an idle team, whether that's their strength of schedule or some other datapoint that we use, or there could be a team that suffers a significant loss in a title game. We don't try to predict what's going to happen, but yes, idle teams can move within the rankings as we rerank them one last time this weekend."

With that in mind, there are a handful of scenarios at play. Let’s take a guess.

What doesn’t matter

There are still factors that won't affect the final at-large spots.

The ACC Championship will happen. A seven-win Duke team has a chance to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff, unless Virginia wins. Either way, the ACC has to send someone to the playoff.

The highest-ranking Group of 5 champion will also clinch a spot in the playoff. That will be one of these three teams: No. 24 North Texas, No. 20 Tulane or No. 25 James Madison.

Also, it should be noted the committee didn't move Ole Miss down, even after the Rebels' head coach, Lane Kiffin, departed for LSU this week after an awkward 48-hour Cold War between Kiffin and Ole Miss officials.

Here are the four scenarios that we could see this weekend.

Scene 1

- Texas Tech beats BYU in a close Big 12 Championship.

- Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game.

This, in theory, moves BYU into a level playing field with Miami. Alabama, in theory, would drop, but how far? If the Tide do fall in this scenario, that means Notre Dame moves up to No. 9.

That should cement Notre Dame as a CFP team at No. 9, most likely playing No. 8 Oklahoma in Norman. If the Committee likes Miami enough, they could move the Hurricanes to No. 9 and put the Irish at No. 10, bumping Alabama. That’s a what-if, though.

This ranking places Alabama at No. 10, the buffer between the Irish and Hurricanes to keep the Irish in the playoff.

Scene 2

- BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.

- Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game.

This is what would make Notre Dame sweat.

This would move the Red Raiders back, but, more importantly, move BYU up over the Irish at 12-1 with a conference title game. The Irish would have to hope Alabama drops between them and Miami, the committee sees the Tide separating Miami and Notre Dame as what keeps the Irish in the playoff.

Scene 3

- Texas Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 Championship.

- Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game.

This would make the Irish sweat, too.

Bama would jump Georgia. The Bulldogs’ resume would be too good to keep them from sliding down to No. 10, which would be what moves the Irish up one.

But, BYU could still be there in between the Irish and Hurricanes. Maybe. You never know what the committee thinks until they hand out their final ruling.

Scene 4

- BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.

- Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game.

This is what Notre Dame does not want.

In this scenario, Texas Tech and Georgia take the final two at-large bids in the CFP final 12. Game over. Maybe Miami and Notre Dame can run it back in a New Year’s Six bowl.

The final rankings come out a week from Tuesday. Luck might have everything to do with it.

College Football Playoff rankings – Dec. 2

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Indiana (12-0)
3. Georgia (11-1)
4. Texas Tech (11-1)
5. Oregon (11-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Texas A&M (11-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Alabama (10-2)
10. Notre Dame (10-2)
11. BYU (11-1)
12. Miami (10-2)
13. Texas (9-3)
14. Vanderbilt (10-2)
15. Utah (10-2)
16. USC (9-3)
17. Virginia (10-2)
18. Arizona (9-3)
19. Michigan (9-3)
20. Tulane (10-2)
21. Houston (9-3)
22. Georgia Tech (9-3)
23. Iowa (8-4)
24. North Texas (11-1)
25. James Madison (11-1)