Illinois basketball earns top-4 preliminary seed from NCAA selection committee
Jeremy Werner on Illini surge and national title hopes | Chicago Sports Tonight
Illini Inquirer's Jeremy Werner from 247 Sports joined Cassie on CST to chat about the Illini Men's Basketball team who are riding high after a dominant win over Indiana on Sunday. Where do Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic rank amongst Illini freshman in program history? Werner also explains why he believes this is Brad Underwood's most talented team and whether they are good enough to win a national title.
Illinois basketball is sitting pretty in the eyes of the NCAA.
The Illini would be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament if the Big Dance started today.
Michigan started the week by climbing to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll for the first time in 13 years. The Wolverines now also headline the preliminary rankings by the committee that will select the 68-team men's field for the NCAA Tournament.
The Wolverines were the top overall seed ahead of Duke, Arizona and Iowa State as the regional 1-seeds in Saturday's reveal show on CBS.
There was little drama about those top three seeds. Selection committee chairman Keith Gill — the Sun Belt commissioner — said there was clear separation between the Michigan-Duke-Arizona trio and whoever landed as the fourth No. 1 seed.
That debate came down to Iowa State, UConn and Houston. And Gill said the committee originally had the Huskies as the 1-seed when it adjourned work Wednesday, only for the Huskies lose to Creighton at home later that night.
Throw in Iowa State’s win against Houston on Monday, and the vote swung to the Cyclones.
"It was really close with those three teams," Gill said. "We talked about Iowa State and UConn and Houston. The head-to-head between Iowa State and Houston got there, and then the UConn and Houston (comparison): UConn's three best wins are better than Houston's three best wins. So when the committee was looking at that, I think (it) weighted those wins a little higher."
The seeds were unveiled hours before a pair of marquee matchups that will carry weight in the final bracket pairings: Michigan against Duke (AP No. 3) in the nation’s capital and Houston (No. 2) hosting Arizona (No. 4).
The seeds
The Huskies and Cougars were the fifth and sixth seeds to headline the list of teams that would be No. 2 regional seeds, followed by Illinois and Purdue.
Reigning national champion Florida was the No. 9 seed to lead the regional 3-seeds, followed by Kansas, Nebraska and Gonzaga.
Texas Tech, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Virginia sat on the 4 line to round out the top 16 seeds.
Overall, the Big 12 and Big Ten each had five of the top 16, while the Atlantic Coast Conference and Southeastern Conference each had two. The Big East and West Coast Conference each had one.
Regional paths
Michigan headlined the Midwest bracket that runs through Chicago, grouped with Houston, Florida and Virginia.
Duke headlined the East running through Washington, followed by Illinois, Kansas and Vanderbilt.
Arizona topped the West running through San Jose, California, followed by Purdue, Gonzaga and Michigan State.
And Iowa State was the No. 1 in the South with UConn, Nebraska and Texas Tech.
Of those groups, Gill said the committee made one adjustment to balance bracket strength for overall seeding, swapping region assignments for Virginia and Michigan State.
Region winners will meet at the Final Four in Indianapolis, with the national semifinals set for April 4 and the championship two days later.
Wait list
Gill said Alabama and Arkansas were the two teams sitting just outside the top 16 seeds. The Razorbacks are ranked 20th in the AP Top 25, the Crimson Tide at 25th.
Not mentioned by the committee? The nation's only remaining undefeated team in Division 1: the 22nd-ranked Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (27-0, 14-0 Mid-American Conference).
Player availability is a variable
Gill pointed to player availability as a variable in evaluations with numerous prominent players injured. In the past week alone, Texas Tech's JT Toppin — an AP second-team All-America last year — and BYU's Richie Saunders (18.0 points) were lost to season-ending knee injuries.
Other key injuries that have sidelined players recently include Gonzaga junior Braden Huff (knee), North Carolina star freshman Caleb Wilson (hand fracture) and Arizona freshman forward Koa Peat (leg). There's also been Jayhawks star freshman Darryn Peterson going in and out of the lineup all season.
Gill said the Red Raiders slid from a regional 3-seed Wednesday to a No. 4 after learning the severity of Toppin's injury in one example. In another, CBS analyst Wally Szczerbiak asked Gill about N.C. State's win against the rival Tar Heels on Tuesday with Wilson — along with big man Henri Veesaar — sidelined.
"It’s a great question because the context matters," Gill said. "So we’re trying to really have a nuanced evaluation of wins and losses. So player availability is really important. Your two best scorers aren’t in the game? That’s going to impact it versus the teams that beat that team with those players available. So I do think it’s impactful, we’ve seen it up and down the seed line so far. It’s impacted us a lot this year."
How much can seeds change?
Saturday’s reveal is a snapshot of where things stand ahead of Selection Sunday (March 15).
Overall, 108 of 128 teams (84.4%) who have appeared in the preliminary reveal since the debut show in 2017 have ended up as top-16 seeds by Selection Sunday; that data excludes 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic forcing the cancellation of that year’s tournament.
That includes at least 11 teams every year, peaking at 15 of 16 in 2017, 2022 and 2023. That figure has been 14 of 16 for each of the past two years.
As for the headliners, 25 of 32 teams (78.1%) that had a 1-seed in the preliminary rankings ultimately remained on the top line, including at least three of four every year and all four in 2023.
Only one team listed as high as a 2-seed has failed to remain inside the top 16: Villanova in 2021, which was a 2-seed in the preliminary reveal but finished as a regional 5-seed.