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Chicago winter outlook: Average cold, potentially snowier season on the horizon

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Published  November 6, 2025 6:47pm CST
Chicago
FOX 32 Chicago

The Brief

    • The Chicago area will experience its first significant taste of winter this weekend as cold Canadian air moves into the Great Lakes, bringing light snowfall with minimal impact.
    • NOAA’s 2025–2026 Winter Outlook suggests a typical La Niña pattern, with the Chicago region having equal chances of above- or below-average temperatures but a higher likelihood of above-average precipitation.
    • While more storm systems may pass through the area, snowfall totals will depend on temperature patterns — meaning Chicago could see either a normal or variable winter compared to the city’s average 38.4 inches of snow.

CHICAGO - The Chicago area is gearing up for its first real taste of Winter this weekend as a cold Canadian air mass builds into the Great Lakes Region. Whether you’re ready for the snowflakes or not, Chicago’s average first trace of snow occurs around October 31st, so the timing of this upcoming blast of cold air is actually right on schedule.

What we know:

While this weekend’s snowfall is expected to bring minimal impacts, it’s time to start looking ahead to the winter season. Meteorological Winter is less than a month away, beginning on December 1st and running through the end of February.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released their 2025-2026 Winter Outlook, and not surprisingly, it resembles a typical La Niña weather pattern. 

(Fox 32)

So what does this mean for the Chicago area? NOAA’s Winter Outlook shows our region has equal chances of either above or below average temperatures. In other words, there isn’t a strong indicator of a clear trend one way or the other, so we lean on our seasonal averages for guidance.

December 1st Average Temps: High 41°, Low 28°

Mid-January Average Temps: High 31°, Low 18°

Late February Average Temps: High 41°, Low 26°

NOAA’s prediction for precipitation shows the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region favored to see above average precipitation. During a La Niña year, the jet stream often sets up in a way that funnels storm systems towards the Upper Midwest. 

(Fox 32)

So does this mean we’re in for a very snowy winter? Not necessarily. It will all come down to the temperature profile of the atmosphere at the time these storm systems move through our region. NOAA’s outlook for "above-average precipitation" includes both rain and snow, so warmer systems could easily tilt totals one way or the other.

For reference, Chicago’s average yearly snowfall is 38.4 inches. We’ll have to see whether this winter keeps pace with the norm or brings a few surprises.

ChicagoNews