Chicago - It is long past being a surprise. The numbers are crunched for another month and the earth's fever continues.
If you are younger than 37, you have never lived at a time when the earth's temperature wasn't at least nominally above the 20th century average. We just recorded the 46th consecutive April and the 448th consecutive month in our current streak of above average months according to the latest global report from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Here's more from April's report:
"The April 2022 global surface temperature was 1.53°degrees above the 20th century average and tied with 2010 as the fifth highest for April in the 143-year record. The 10 warmest April months have occurred since 2010, with the years 2014–2022 all ranking among the 10 warmest Aprils on record."
Notice the blob of blue covering much of the United States and Canada in the graphic showing land and ocean temperature departure from average. The contiguous US had its 50th coolest April since records began in 1895. That was an exception to an otherwise warm April rule for our world.
2022 is a sure bet to land among the top ten warmest years on record. The global surface temperature for the period of January–April was 1.57 degrees above the 20th-century average. The year-to-date is now ranked as the fifth-warmest in the 143-year record.
NCEI's statistical analysis says this year is more than 99% likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and about 28% likely to rank in the top five.
As warm as 2022 is so far, it could have been worse. La Niña conditions are favored to continue through the year and that tends to cool the earth down at least a bit. That will most likely prevent 2022 from being the warmest year on record. There is only a 1.4% chance of that happening.