Think your kid will go pro? Here's what the numbers say: Telander

CHICAGO - Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be athletes. Let them grow up to be gamblers instead.

Hoo-ha!

I don’t mean dice throwers or shady guys hanging around pool halls and backroom card games (although we’ll talk about cards in a minute).

No, I mean solid, informed, educated, decent, profit-oriented gamblers. If you haven’t noticed, all you moms (and dads), gambling is what makes the world go round. It’s ingrained in everything we do, from farming to banking to building houses.

For sure, let the kiddies play games all they want. And let them take their physical talent as far as they want. Grade school sports are great. High school sports are great. Club games are great. AAU games are great.

A young baseball player runs hard as he attempts to steal second base during the Norwalk Little League baseball competition at Broad River Fields, Norwalk, Connecticut. (Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Youth Sports Dreams vs. Reality

But if you think little Junior is going to make his fortune as a Division-1 football or basketball or baseball player, and then, God forbid, as an NFL or NBA or Major League player—please don’t.

You want odds?

About 3% of high school football players will play D-1 football. Three out of a hundred.

Only 1% of high school basketball players will play D-1. That’s 1-in-100. And that’s after you’ve already made your high school varsity squad and starred. And remember, most kids quit serious sports by age 14. So the high school pool you’re starting from is even more elite than you might think.

According to the NCAA, of the 8.2 million U.S. high school athletes, only 7% go on to play in college, and only 2% earn any type of scholarship. Think of all that money you already blew on camps, travel teams, special coaching, equipment, shoes—not to mention the time you and your kid will never get back—all in the hopes that he’ll be the next Cooper Flagg, Fernando Mendoza, Willie Mays. Or even little Yuki Kawamura, the 5-foot-7 guard who played in 18 games for the Bulls this season.

He won’t be.

The Real Odds of Going Pro

The odds of making the NBA from high school are roughly 0.03%. That’s three in 10,000, similar odds, studies show, to the probability of being struck by lightning.

What about making the NFL? That’s eight in 10,000.

Major League Baseball? Less than 1-in-200. You’re about half as likely to be born with 11 fingers.

And don’t forget, we’re talking about simply making it into these elite leagues. Starting? Starring? Getting paid gazillions? Cue the laugh emoji here.

And all this goes for girls and young women in sports too, though to a lesser degree, because basketball, the WNBA, is currently the only real moneymaker.

Gambling, Risk and the Way the World Works

But gambling. Man, oh man.

This is the thing about gambling: It is, in some form or other, how the human universe moves.

For instance, what is the stock market but gambling? Buying stock or trading it is an attempt to predict the future, to your advantage, which is the point. You buy stock at a certain number, and you hope it goes up. It’s a gamble. It’s a risk. But if you’re good at it, if you know the marketplace, the economy, the nature of the business and its product, it’s less of a gamble and closer to a guarantee.

Gambling is now legal in many states, and sports are driven by gambling. Old sportscaster Brent Musberger has a system that says bet on a baseball team to win after it has won three in a row, and bet against it if it has lost three in a row. Chicago Sun-Times gambling writer Rob Miech says the system, if it had been followed for six months last MLB season, would have made $7,772 for the person risking $100 a game.

Nice work, Brent!

It’s good if you’re a polymath too, on the spectrum, can count cards, maybe remember every card in a two or three-pack deck. In that case, get thee to Las Vegas—or Rivers Casino — for your blackjack winnings!

The Better Bet in Life

But what I really mean here are two things. The dreaminess of being a pro athlete is mainly just that, a dream. And figuring out the odds of success in anything—your job, your 401k, your marriage, your meaningful life—that is something to focus on.

A half century ago, I covered the World Series of Poker at Binion’s Horseshoe Casino in Las Vegas for Travel & Leisure Magazine. Old boys were there, including gambling legends Doyle "Iceman" Brunson, "Tall Man" Straus and Amarillo Slim (never did get his full name). I learned something important then as a very young man: In time, the skilled and dedicated will take from the unskilled and naïve.

"A lot of games I get in around the country are soft as butter," Slim explained to me during a break. "After a few hours a fellow’s not gambling, he’s stealing."

In fact, moms, don’t let your kids be gamblers. Not on games. The odds will get them. What Amarillo Slim was saying is that being good at something through hard work makes you a winner.

Have your kids bet on a balanced life where understanding and learning and compassion and good health are the goals. Play sports for fun and discipline. Ride them as far as you can. Then play the odds of life.

Dig deeper:

Want more? Read some of Rick Telander’s recent columns for Fox 32:

The Source: This article was written by Rick Telander, a contributing sports columnist for FOX Chicago.

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