How long can Chicago avoid excessive heat?

Barely a month into meteorological summer and it has been deadly for many parts of the country with record-breaking heat.  

Texas has seen the worst of it with high heat coupled with high humidity levels. More than a dozen people have perished in the scorching heat there but the real number of heat-related deaths will take some time to tally. 

Excessive heat warnings continue for parts of Arizona through Friday. Phoenix will see highs hit between 110 and 115 degrees for the rest of the week. The city came within one degree Monday of tying the record high for that date of 117 degrees. It is a record that goes back 116 years. It was their hottest day since June 19, 2021.

We have had a smattering of steamy days here but so far, no real excessive heat. The National Weather Service has yet to issue a heat advisory for the area, let alone an excessive heat warning. 

Heat advisories are considered once the heat index or "feels like" temperature climbs to 100 degrees or more. June barely came in above average thanks to a warm finish with a high of 91 degrees on the last day of the month. The average temperature in Chicago for June ended up just .2 degrees above normal. 

So far July is running about 2 degrees above average. Even with back-to-back 90s (Tuesday and today) our turn toward a cooler pattern starting Thursday will undoubtedly drop us back below average overall.

Our Fox Model shows 90s today and then slipping into the 70s for highs Thursday. We do warm back into the 80s for six days in a row. Even still, only two of the next eleven days are actually forecast to be above average. 

The average high for this date is 84 degrees. Historically, the hottest part of the year for us is the middle of this month. The average high for July 11th through July 24th is 85 degrees.

The longer-range temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also hints at a cooler pattern coming. There is a lot of blue on the map which indicates the parts of the country that should be below average overall.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook has us "likely below" normal from next Monday through the following Friday. We have the darkest shade of blue on the map which indicates the Midwest has the highest probability of being below average overall during this period. 

The 8-14 day temperature outlook suggests the relatively cooler pattern could continue just past the middle of this month. It has us "leaning below" normal from next Wednesday through the following Tuesday.

The even longer range 3-4 week temperature outlook gives Chicago the blues. It also hints at a cooler than average pattern overall for the second half of July. So if you like your summer steamy, enjoy the 90s today and hope for more to come in August and September because we may not have anymore the rest of this month.