Chicago weather: May might end relatively warm and dry

May will be the deciding month that determines whether spring ends up either cooler or warmer than average overall this year. Considering the longer-range forecasts are trending towards a relatively warm end to the month, it appears likely that 2023's meteorological spring will end up above average. May is now running 2.4 degrees above average. April ended up 2.1 degrees above average. March is the outlier coming in just .2 degrees below average. 

Our Fox model shows above average highs for seven of the next eleven days. It suggests some steamy weather could be moving in just before Memorial Day weekend too. 

Longer-range model forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are hinting that after a couple of relatively cooler days (Sunday and today) a transition to a warmer pattern returns over the next couple of weeks. There is a strong signal that the warmer than average pattern out west will be expanding in our direction by the end of the month.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook has us "near normal" from this Saturday through the following Wednesday. Average highs for this period are in the lower 70s.

The 8-14 day temperature outlook has us "leaning above" average overall. It covers the period from next Monday through the following Sunday of Labor Day weekend. Average highs for this period are in the middle 70s.

The longer-range forecasts also have a fairly strong drier than average signal for the next couple of weeks. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook has us "leaning below" average overall. This covers the period that includes this weekend and through the middle of next week.

The 8-14 day precipitation outlook keeps a relatively dry pattern coming. It also has us "leaning below" average overall with rainfall. The last two days of this period does include the Saturday and Sunday of Memorial Day weekend. It's still a bit early to say anything definitive in terms of a specific forecast for the holiday, but the models are trending towards a warmer than average and drier than average pattern.