Northwestern study finds bias persists even as support for gay candidates grows

CHICAGO - American voters have largely stopped penalizing gay candidates for being gay. What they have not stopped doing is penalizing candidates who look or sound like it. 

That is the central finding of a new Northwestern University study published this month in the Journal of Politics, released as the country marks Pride Month and LGBTQ representation in elected office reaches historic levels.

The research does not argue that progress is an illusion. It argues that progress has limits most voters do not recognize in themselves.

What the study found:

Lead author Martin Naunov, an assistant professor of political science and faculty associate at Northwestern’s Institute for Policy Research, surveyed nearly 2,600 people across two experiments: 1,971 U.S. adults and 616 university students. 

Participants evaluated hypothetical congressional primary candidates from their own party and rated how likely they were to vote for each.

Every candidate profile included a headshot and a short audio campaign message. Naunov used software to subtly feminize each candidate’s facial features or raise their vocal pitch. He also signaled sexuality through partner references, using words like "husband" or "wife." To make sure the changes were realistic, he checked the manipulated profiles against 157 actual male-presenting gay candidates endorsed by the Victory Fund, the largest LGBTQ political action committee.

The results were stark. Among Republicans, identifying as gay reduced a candidate’s probability of support by roughly 22 percentage points. Among Democrats, being gay carried no penalty at all and slightly increased support.

But gender presentation cut across party lines. Nationally, identifying as gay dropped support by seven percentage points. Looking or sounding gender-nonconforming dropped it by another seven on top of that. Democrats and Republicans penalized gender nonconformity at almost exactly the same rate.

The penalty applied to straight men too. A straight candidate who appeared or sounded gender-nonconforming paid the same electoral cost.

"What surprised me most was that Democrats punished gender nonconformity at roughly the same rate as Republicans," Naunov said.

A bias hiding in plain sight:

Naunov argues the study exposes something the existing research has missed. Prior political science work focused on whether voters reject a group outright, gay versus straight, Black versus white, immigrant versus native. His study examines a second, more subtle layer: whether voters penalize individuals who visibly embody markers of a minority identity.

A gay candidate with a lisp, an immigrant job applicant with an accent, a Black defendant who speaks African American Vernacular English. Each can face penalties even from voters who reject anti-gay, anti-immigrant or anti-Black bias at the group level.

"In the real world, bias rarely operates on group identities alone," Naunov said. "It operates on the physical markers that make identity distinctive and visible."

That distinction matters for how researchers and advocates think about discrimination. Someone can genuinely consider themselves an ally and still penalize the very people they believe they support.

"You might be committed to gay rights," Naunov told Chicago Live. "But if you are penalizing against gender nonconformity, you might perhaps inadvertently be penalizing a substantial part of the very community that you try to advocate for."

For straight candidates:

The study’s implications reach beyond the LGBTQ community. Naunov found that straight men who deviate even slightly from traditional norms of masculinity face an electoral cost as well.

"We used to refuse to elect gay people," he said. "Now we elect them, but so long as they conform to a very particular version of masculinity."

He argues that gender norms do not just restrict LGBTQ candidates. They restrict everyone.

"Recognizing this matters because it points to something that often gets lost in conversations about LGBTQ rights," Naunov said. "Traditional beliefs about how a person should look, sound and move in the world may privilege heterosexuality, but they also diminish the freedom and authenticity of everyone, including straight people."

A historic first weighs in:

Cook County Commissioner Maggie Trevor won her 9th District seat in 2022 by 680 votes, defeating Republican Matt Podgorski in a district her predecessor, Republican Peter Silvestri, had held for years. Her win made her the first openly lesbian commissioner in Cook County history.

She was not the first LGBTQ member of the board. Democrat Kevin Morrison was elected in 2018 as the first openly gay commissioner. Anthony Quezada won his seat the same year Trevor did.

Trevor holds a doctorate from the University of Chicago and spent years as a political scientist before running for office. She read the study’s abstract and pushed back on applying its findings broadly.

"I wouldn’t read much into that study beyond that sub-segment of the LGBT community," she said, pointing out the research focused exclusively on gay men. She said her own experience knocking on doors did not match the pattern the study describes.

"I am who I am. This is how I look," Trevor said. "There were some households that weren’t comfortable with me for sure, but that would have been true no matter who I was."

But she did not dismiss the research entirely.

"The study does indicate that we still do have progress to make," she said. "It still does affect us. It doesn’t affect us as much as it used to, but there is still work to be done."

Trevor pointed to Virginia Del. Danica Roem, who in 2017 became the first openly transgender person elected to any state legislature in the United States, as evidence that identity does not have to define a campaign. Roem ran on fixing traffic congestion and won.

"That’s ultimately what people care about," Trevor said. "They care about what government services do."

For LGBTQ candidates considering a run, Trevor’s message was direct.

"Don’t really give it a second thought," she said. "It is not the barrier that you think it is. Run on the issues that are important to you and to your constituents."

What's next:

The study, titled "The Right Kind of (Gay) Man? Sexuality, Gender Presentation and Heteronormative Constraints on Electability," was published May 15, 2025, in the Journal of Politics by the University of Chicago Press.

Commissioner Trevor represents the 9th District on the Cook County Board. Kevin Morrison, the first openly gay commissioner, is leaving the board to run for Congress in Illinois’ 8th Congressional District.

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