Who could replace Dick Durbin in the U.S. Senate?

CHICAGO - U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin announced earlier this week that he won’t seek re-election to his seat after a long career in Congress.

His decision not to run in 2026 clears the way for a wide-open race to replace him within the Democratic Party.

Open Senate seat

What we know:

With about 10 months before the 2026 primary election in Illinois, there is plenty of time for some heavy hitters to declare their candidacies, as one statewide elected official has already done.

Experts have told Fox 32 there could be as many as a dozen candidates who could decide to jump in and vie for the open seat next year.

"We’re just so fortunate to have such a deep bench," said Delmarie Cobb, a Democratic political consultant. "Not many states can say that."

As Illinois is a solidly Democratic voting state, it’s highly likely the winner of next year’s primary race will go on to be elected to the Senate. But there is at least one prominent Republican who is reportedly already considering jumping into the race.

Who might run?

Dig deeper:

Here is a look at some of the most likely names who will compete to become the next U.S. senator representing the Prairie State.

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D)

Stratton has already announced her candidacy for the Senate seat and has backing from Gov. JB Pritzker. The announcement came a mere 48 hours after Durbin announced he wasn’t running.

Stratton was elected back in 2018 as Pritzker’s running mate when they ousted Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. They were re-elected in 2022.

Before being elected the state’s fourth woman and first Black lieutenant governor, Stratton served a single term in the Illinois House of Representatives, representing parts of Chicago’s downtown area and South Side.

During her time in office, Stratton has focused on issues like criminal justice reform, agriculture and food insecurity and recruiting more diverse teachers in schools.

U.S. Rep. Raja Krisnamoorthi (D)

Krisnamoorthi has represented parts of Chicago’s west and northwest suburbs since his election to Congress in 2016.

The congressman has been a prolific fundraiser with about $19 million in his campaign war chest.

During his time in Washington, Krisnamoorthi has been a vocal proponent of combating the rise of China as a national security and economic competitor to the U.S. 

"He’s been a real workhorse on Capitol Hill," said Fox 32 Political Analyst Mike Flannery. "He gets down into the details of legislation, into the nuts and bolts. He’s one of those guys who you can’t pin down. You can’t trip him up with detailed questions because he understands the details."

U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly (D)

Kelly, who has represented much of Chicago’s south suburbs in Congress since 2013, has said she will announce her plans to run sometime next week, indicating she’ll likely be the next formally announced Senate candidate.

In her statement announcing her plans, she pointed to an analysis by the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University which showed her with a higher rating for "legislative effectiveness" when compared with potential rivals like Krishnamoorthi and U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood.

During her time in Congress, she’s focused on issues like curbing gun violence and reducing health disparities for Black women and children.

She also serves as the chair of the Democratic Party of Illinois.

U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)

Underwood became the youngest Black woman ever to serve in Congress after her election in 2018, after unseating a Republican incumbent in an anti-Trump wave in the House.

Her district includes much of the state’s southwest suburbs and far southwest exurbs.

While many Republicans have tried to portray her alongside the younger and more progressive Democrats that have entered Congress in recent years, Underwood has struck a more moderate tone during her tenure. She’s focused on issues like health care, especially Black maternal health, infrastructure funding, and veterans' issues.

Still, some have pointed to her youth as an asset in a statewide office.

"She’s thought of as [part] of that progressive group. She’s not quite as progressive as some of them," Cobb said. "But she has a wide swath of support. Now, does she have the inner city of Chicago? African Americans in the city, they’ve got to get to know her. They probably don’t know her that well."

Fmr. Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D)

The former mayor of Chicago, White House chief of staff, and U.S. ambassador to Japan has been making the rounds with media appearances in the wake of the Democratic Party’s disastrous 2024 election results.

Politico reported last month that Emanuel was even eyeing a potential run for president in 2028, well over a decade after his last election for mayor in 2015. He could also be in the mix for other roles, like DNC chair, governor—which will also be on the ballot in 2026—and now the Senate seat left open by Durbin. 

Emanuel also served in the House of Representatives, representing parts of the Chicago suburbs from 2003 to 2009.

"He could raise money too," Flannery said. "People joke about his media tour on podcasts and columnists. He’s got many of the key national media folks on speed dial."

Flannery added that Emanuel "wants to be mentioned for all of these campaigns, but he, of course, is somebody who’s been around a long time."

Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs

Frerichs has served as Illinois treasurer since he was elected in 2014.

As treasurer, he is the state's chief investment and banking official and manages about $56 billion.

Frerichs said Pritzker's endorsement of Stratton so early on in the cycle won't sway his decision on getting in the race.

"I think the ultimate endorsements that will make the difference will be the voters of the state of Illinois," he said. "And it's not a surprise that politicians endorse. It's not a surprise that the governor supports his lieutenant governor. I also have great respect for the lieutenant governor but I'll be having conversations with my family over the next week or so as well."

U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood (R)

LaHood, a downstate Republican, has been mulling a run for the Senate seat, according to media reports.

At Semafor's World Economy Summit last week, LaHood said he's "had a lot of people reach out to us, and so we're going to take a hard look at it and we'll make a decision at the appropriate time."

The Peoria native represents parts of the rural northern and central parts of the state and has served in the House since 2015.

It's not likely a Republican will win statewide in Illinois, especially during a midterm election cycle in which Democrats are expected to ride an anti-Trump wave as the party out of power after the 2024 election. The last time a Republican was elected to a U.S. Senate seat in Illinois was 2010.

"I think the Republicans will make the mistake of looking at the performance of the presidential candidate here, which was way down in 2024 compared to 2020 and other years, and mistake it for an opening that Illinois has shifted, is a little less blue than it was," said Pete Giangreco, a Democratic political consultant. "That'd be a misread on their part. This is a solidly blue state and I think the winner of the primary, unless there's some major thing that comes out afterwards, you're gonna see the senator elected in March of 2026 in the Democratic primary."

Early polling

By the numbers:

An early poll taken before Durbin even announced he would not run for another term, Underwood and Krisnamoorthi were statistically tied.

The poll, conducted by Democratic polling firm 314 Action, surveyed 773 likely Democratic primary voters in Illinois in late March.

Underwood led the initial poll with 33%, Krishamoorthi was close behind with 30%, Stratton had 16% and Kelly earned 10% with another 10% of respondents saying they were undecided.

Underwood had the highest name identification in the field, with 77% of respondents being able to identify her by name and 57% of them saying they knew her well enough to offer an opinion.

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